Differential responses to expansion and crisis? The role of urban-rural divides in long-term demographic dynamics

Economic downturns in advanced countries may influence demographic dynamics, increasing regional differences in population trends and consolidating social divides in accessible and marginal regions. The present study proposes a quantitative framework analysing the latent impact of economic expansions and recessions on regional population dynamics in Greece. Selected indicators (population density, contribution of natural balance and migration balance to total population growth, gross fertility rate and crude birth rate, crude marriage rate, births per marriage, and crude mortality rate) were used to distinguish long-term transitional processes (1956-2017) from short-term dynamics characterising the most recent economic expansion (2000-2008) and recession (2009-2017) in Greece. Indicators were calculated separately for Attica, a metropolitan region centred on Athens, where more than 30 per cent of country population was (and still is) settled, and the rest of Greece, allowing a detailed analysis of socio-demographic dynamics in urban and rural areas. Results of this study indicate that regional population trends in Greece were influenced by a combination of factors reflecting long-term transitional forces, urbanisation/suburbanisation processes, and short-term impact of economic downturns.